Sunday, June 25, 2023

June 24, 25

 Sunny and with a clearer blue sky than we had seen for some time.

Watching the coverage of the situation in Russia. We'll follow that for today. The situation is very fluid with so many possible paths and outcomes.

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As I said yesterday--we have been watching the coverage of the Russia "crisis." So far what is sure is that the Wagner ended its rebellion and turned back to their previous positions. It had been surprisingly effective and revealed some weaknesses in the conventional military. For Prigozhin's  forces to take over Rostov and the military command for the Ukraine operation without firing a shot says nothing good about the Russian military. To have a "agreement" negotiated by Belorus's President Lukashenko that ended the criminal case against Prigozhin and his mercenaries AND to allow Prigozhin to go into "exile" in Beloruss AND to fold the members of Wagner Group who didn't participate into the regular military is mind boggling. Some comments by the various analysts stand out. Putin's "management style" has been to pit rival groups against each other while he remains above the fray and in charge. That, like anything else in human affairs, works--until it doesn't. The experts say there are rumors that the heads of the military, Shoigu and Gerasamov, will resign soon. I would expect that given their poor performance both in Ukraine and in meeting an armed insurrection. If that is the case, I would say that Putin has neutralized two potential threats: the military hierarchy and Wagner. A question I have asked myself is: what if Putin and Prigozhin planned this outcome together? Only time will reveal the consequences of these last two days.

Now to shift gears--We have had nice sunny days with temps in the mid 80s(F). Last night we had a round of thunderstorms thunder in with heavy rain that sounded like hail. However, I looked out and saw only rain. At least I don't have to water anything today. 

Update: it is just after noon and we have more rain. 

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