October 31

 Happy Halloween and welcome to the end of October. The current temperature is 22F according to The Weather Channel. They forecast a high in the mid 30s with chances of afternoon SNOW at 40% rising to 80% overnight. Possible accumulation of 1-3 inches and a low again in the 20s.

Well, the UAW and the big three automakers have reached tentative agreements that have yet to be voted on by union membership but the union leaders are recommending approval. The workers won't get the 40% increase they wanted but the 25% isn't chump change. I always thought the CEOs who got that 40& over the last 3 years exhibited both hubris and hypocrisy when they claimed corporate poverty when presented with union demands.

Stray thought: most of the commentators were somewhat bemused about the motivation behind the new Speaker's decision to link the aid package for Israel, without any for either Taiwan or Ukraine as proposed by the Biden administration), to a claw back of the money allotted to the IRS in the Inflation Reduction Act passed earlier this year. That money was intended to boost the number of IRS auditors who were supposed to target high earning shirkers. They call it a pay-for. What the commentators aren't recognizing is how such a move meshes with the aims of a significant portion of the Republican conference. If the IRS can't audit tax returns and we risk tax avoidance becoming another "national support."  Reduced compliance means reduced revenue which means the fiscal health of the U.S. they all are so-o-o-o-o concerned about becomes more questionable. Also it is entirely probable that any aid for either Israel and Ukraine will be delayed possibly for months as the measures bounces between the House, the Senate and the White House. Think about what I said yesterday about what would happen to our alliances if we fail to keep our word to our partners. But we also have a significant number of isolationists in the Republican caucus. The Former Guy took us out of the Paris Climate Accords and threatened to do the same for NATO. If we break our promises we won't have to leave the various alliance we are a part of. Our partners will kick us out. And it is still a global international world but we would be all alone in it. Take Britain's problems after Brexit and quadruple it.

I keep saying that the major problem with all the economists politicians rely on to tell us how good the economy is they don't do their own grocery shopping. That basically what Ian Walsh says here. The headline economic statistics the news media hype so regularly ignores some of the data that affects ordinary people most severely: food, fuel, or longterm unemployed people.

October 30

 It got cold enough last night for the furnace to come on so the temperature inside dipped below 68F.

This post came up today on the Tomdispatch site. It conjured up memories. Thirty five years ago or a bit more I read the Dower book (War Without Mercy). She provides a good short description of its description how we and the Japanese "dehumanized" the other side. (Note that same process of dehumanization occurred with respect to the American vs German side of WWII.) Another memories of about fifty years ago was an article in Psychology Today about the Argentine "Dirty War" conducted by the military junta against alleged "communists". I mentioned what I call the Chivington dictum several days ago: nits make lice. You don't make nice with lice or their young. You exterminate them. If you consider the humanoid enemy as the equivalent of lice, you stomp them. Unfortunately, we seem to be in a cycle of defining people, at home and abroad, with whom we are at odds as "inhuman", "subhuman", or not really human at all. Otherwise, we wouldn't have "demonstrations" where the rallying cry is "Kill the Jews" or "Jews will not replace us."

Robert Reich makes a number of very accurate comments on his Substack. In at least one point he could have gone further. He takes on the notion some, primarily, Republican politicians expressed that we can't "afford" to support both Israel and Ukraine. I am sure they are talking simply about the economic definition of the word and Reich addresses that meaning. A simple "thought experiment" would show a fuller notion of "afford." If we suspend aid to Ukraine we would basically abrogate our pledge to support Ukraine in its defense against and that would destroy our relationships in NATO and with Europe and other supporters we cajoled into the alliance against Russia. Many of those countries are already wary of the U.S. after the trump years and if how willing would they be to follow the U.S. lead in the next crisis (and there will be another crisis.) If we leave Israel twisting in the wind would Israel ever trust us again, if the country survives. The two major nations allied with the U.S. against Iran are (drum roll) Israel and Saudi Arabia. Commenters are consistently asking what will happen the day after if Israel manages to destroy Hamas. No one has any idea and circumstances we don't even foresee may make any such ideas unattainable.

Stray thought: I just finished reading another plea from a writer who recounted the experiences of various people, including family members, over a more than a century. From pogroms in Russia to a German who made repeated trips back to their villages to help others get out to the Sunday School teacher who showed the children the tattoo on his wrist. I would like to link but I discarded the post before I realized I wanted to keep it. Point is the writer makes a plea for a cease fire and asks people to contact their representatives to support one. He notes that sometime the cycle of violence has to stop if we want the killing to stop. I don't think it will because of a gut feeling that came out of a report this morning: Netanyahu is driving for a BIG win, that is the destruction of Hamas. I made a comment that he is cut from much the same cloth as The Former Guy and he hopes to retain power and short circuit the legal problems he has. He thinks such a "win" might do that. It would definitely shore up his base in the ultra conservative Jewish community and get him out of the power sharing that was forced on him. The U.S. and others has been urging restraint. It appears that Israel's operations have been somewhat restrained but one wonders for how long.

In any good, and most not so good, mystery stories the question usually is "cui bono"--to whose benefit. One interesting mystery novel, Under Pressure by Robert Pobi, starts out that way but finds the real answer is just the opposite, who gets hurt. That is a long winded way of introducing this article from Naked Capitalism. The author describes how American arms manufacturers are making a killing, in the financial sense, as Israel and its allies are making a killing (as in real physical deaths) in Gaza. That tells you who benefits (cui bono) but we don't really know yet who will lose the most in this. Nor do we have any idea of what kind the losses will be.

I tried to read this on the link from Naked Capitalism but the source was on the Fortune Magazine site and behind a pay wall. So I poked around and found this on Scientific American. I can't remember drug shortages until fairly recently. An interesting thought on the issue of generics: Mom has to take a particular drug for a permanent condition. The doctor prescribes a name brand and refuses to order the generic version. He told us the generic never tests accurately and he used to send his patients back for repeat tests. The pharmacists have tried to persuade her to get the doctor to prescribe the generics because of cost and are surprised when she tells them 1) she asked and 2) explains his reasoning. We have so often been told that the generics are just as good as the name brand just cheaper. Note in the story that an Indian company that makes generics stopped when a surprise USDA inspection revealed the company was not maintaining the standards expected for the medication. And how many drugs or drug ingredients are made in India? I don't know off the top of my head but it is a lot. Supply Chains are getting frayed.

October 29

 The overnight temperature inside dropped to 68F but so far hasn't gone any lower so the furnace isn't kicking in. Outside, according to the Weather Channel, is 44F. Not expected to rise out of the mid 40s. Should get some rain this afternoon and evening.

For the "Things That Totally Irritate Me" file: MAGA Mike, the new Speaker of the House of Representatives says we "don't have a gun problem. We have a 'heart problem'." Great way to simply say nobody has any role or responsibility to do something about the problem except the sick bastards who acquire a military style weapon and blow away their friends (if they have any), neighbors, and family (who have sometimes tried to get help only to have the system fail them). The shooters are the least capable parties to do anything helpful. Shortly before the Uvalde shooting the state of Texas( Governor Greg Abbott) slashed mental health resources.

Perhaps the best decision Mike Pence has made lately is to drop out of the contest for the Republican nomination. He was such an active and effective governor here in Indiana that I didn't even know his name. He never really campaigned outside of the church circuit. Watching him all through out the Former Guy's four years of mismanagement he was simply a ghost who was always in his master's shadow--and I don't mean the Jesus he supposedly worshiped. His one act of courage was to defy that master and certify the election of Joe Biden. Perhaps he thought he, like "America's Mayor" Rudi, could parlay his moment into a larger role. It didn't work. He was neither fish enough nor fowl enough. Not enough MAGA and not enough anti-MAGA. He gave cover for totally corrupt man who violated every fundamental moral belief of his (supposed) Christianity. He gave hope to those who had to hold their noses and vote for The Former Guy that the good man would somehow reform the amoral one. Just like they hope there is a good guy with a gun to take down the bad guy with a gun. HOPIUM!!

Military.Com posted this story which elicited an "Oh, shit!" exclamation from me. Not a good situation. And it also shows the chaos resulting when a technology one depends on fails. And it shows the difficulty involved in taking the system back to a lower tech alternative.

Patrick Lawrence at The Floutist makes a good point. Several news commenters noted almost in passing (as though whistling past a grave yard) that the vote in the U.N. General Assembly reveals that the U.S. is increasingly isolated on the world stage it had once dominated. The U.S. was one of 14 voting against it. Most of our "allies" abstained but that block of 44 reveals both how out of the main the Western blocks are and how fractured they may be as The U.K. and France voted for the resolution. Given The Former Guy's threats over NATO, exiting the Paris Accords on Climate, and other actions, many of our "allies" are questioning how far they should trust us. Sensibly many are charting their own course of action without regard to what the U.S. might say or do. Our government is trying to find its footing in a world which is no longer bi-polar (U.S. vs U.S.S.R.) or unipolar (U.S. alone) which all too many of our politicians can't get their heads around.

Daily News Hungary has a long piece on Viktor Orban that also shows some of the fractures within the EU. Note that Hungary is also a NATO member.

Modern Diplomacy highlights one source of the fractures: money. Some of the arguments parallel those of the politicians on this side of the Atlantic who want to know how new spending will be funded and demanding "pay fors" (i.e., reduction or elimination of already agreed upon spending) to cover new appropriations. It points to a fact most politicians don't want to acknowledge: both sources of funds (taxes and borrowing) are not infinitely elastic. At some point the promises made to Peter are going to be broken to cover those made to Paul. And no one knows what will happen once that cycle begins.

Another irritation: all the various groups and nations insisting that ISRAEL call a pause operations or truce of some kind. Did I miss something here: I seem to remember it was Hamas fighters streaming through the gaps Hamas blown the barriers NOT the Israelis. An old saying goes that it takes two to make peace but only one to make a war. We have seen that with both Ukraine and the Hamas-Israel conflict. I haven't heard of any pressure on Hamas to sue for peace. In fact they are making demands to allow foreign nationals to leave by the southern exit. Doesn't seem like they want to make peace.

October 28

 Almost the end of October and the temperatures are starting to reflect that. It has been a wet fall so far and the area here is no longer in any stage of drought. Can't say that for the Mississippi and many of its tributaries. The river is approaching record lows for the second year in a row.

The shooting drama in Maine is over except for the burials and psychological trauma left behind. And since the shooter killed himself, the answers most people want will stay obscure. And, of course, the Republicans will shift from bleating "this is not the time" to spouting what ever bullshit reason they can wet fart out of their oral orifices to continue to do the will of their true paymasters who aren't the majority of the voters. So they will do nothing.

October 24, 25

Good morning. Just getting some light outside. Not much planned today though that often has a way of changing. We had to pay rent--the end of the month comes so quickly. I also spent some time at the bank yesterday. The new phone was frustrating me and I couldn't get into my account on line. Well a very patient cashier worked with me for half an hour to get my phone set up. I finished the process this morning and easily did everything I needed to do. I will have to spend some time learning how the damned thing works.

25**********************************************************************

Cloudy and rainy today so we decided to finish our laundry. We have an errand to our local dairy on the schedule for tomorrow morning. The forecast is for rain later tomorrow so we hope to be home again before that.

The House Republicans have another Speaker candidate. An unknown from Louisiana who is known for supporting the Big Lie and opposing funding Ukraine. I don't know how he voted on the budget or spending bills. Earlier I thought of the title of one of Christie's books: And Then There Were None. All of the nine prospective candidates fell like bowling pins. The Former Guy wasn't able to get his chosen one but he certainly threw a strike at the rest of the hopefuls.

While I was reading some other material the Republicans got their crap together and put up a nominee for Speaker that was able to actually get elected. The new Speaker Mike Johnson from Louisiana. He is a "social conservative" which means he is in favor of abortion bans and other measures to restrict the rights of marginal people. He was a supporter of the big lies and efforts to challenge the votes Biden won. Early accounts reported that he is a fiscal conservative who may not want to support Ukraine or Israel and wants "pay fors" for new appropriations without specifying what programs would pay for the measures. We'll see what happens since to get measures passed he will need more mainstream Republicans AND Democrats.

October 23

 Good early morning. Cool, cloudy, and not much rain expected according to the Weather Channel. We have an early errand today but otherwise no real plans.

The early news/commentary posed an interesting question that hasn't been asked at all. All the political leaders have insisted that Israel has to, really has to, consider "what comes after" whatever they are planning in Gaza. The commenter suggested that the same question be asked of all of the Muslim governments involved. The way the question is usually posed and directed--at Israel--erases the fact that Israel is NOT the only actor in this. Hamas clearly has agency as shown by its attack on Israel. Iran has agency as shown by its financial and other support of Hamas. Qatar has agency considering that it is harboring Hamas leaders. I could go on down the list. They should also have to articulate what they see as the outcome--what comes after.

Another segment on the news this morning was a bit annoying. The commenter worried about an escalating situation in the Hamas-Israel conflict with the various patrons on each side getting gradually, or not so gradually, pulled in until it is a world conflagration. The talking heads made their comparison of today's situation to that of the beginning of WWII. I would go back further to the start of WWI. I still think Barbara Tuchman's THE GUNS OF AUGUST is the best account of the start of the war. European powers were split between two camps: Austria/Germany later joined by the Ottoman Empire vs. England/France/Russia. France and England were also guarantors of Belgian sovereignty. The War began in Serbia with the assassination of the heir to the Austrian throne and Austria's threats to Serbia which brought Russia in to support their "slavic brothers." The conflict expanded from there especially when Germany violated Belgium's borders to attack France. Today we have a very similar situation and the only question is whether the Hamas attack will be our "assassination in Sarajevo."

Bill Astore reminds us how to read the war dispatches. It isn't just war dispatches that uses the passive voice to hide the source of the action or who exactly affected. Politics does the same especially when politicians want to hide who is responsible for actions they know will upset voters.

I heard another comment that interested me: Hamas can't be defeated because Hamas is an IDEA more than a group of people. Ideas don't die. They come back in a slightly different form. Just as the Islamic State was an idea and has appeared in various places under different names. That is likely what will happen with Hamas even if Israel is able to dismantle it and decapitate its local leadership especially since its top leaders are not in Gaza.

October 21, 22

Chilly and overcast this morning. It was cool enough this morning that I checked the thermostat. It was still at 69 so I didn't turn on the furnace. I checked again just now and the temperature had dipped to 68. I made sure the automatic setting was at 68 and turned on the furnace. It will only come on when the temperature goes below the setting. We have noticed that our electric bills have been a bit higher this year but the summer was very warm for a long time. We haven't had any trouble paying our utility bills but we try to keep tabs on them.

Doomberg has an interesting and long teaser this morning. A teaser because I can only read the first half and I would love to read the rest which is behind a pay wall. I simply can't afford the $30 a month subscription or the $300/year either. I have been fascinated by the dance between energy companies and climate activists. At one point the activists can pressure a company (either directly or through the "passive" investors like Black Rock) and get a so-called climate friendly board. But once the spotlight is off they backtrack. In the case Doomberg describes the back tracking came in response the dislocations that came with international events like the Ukraine-Russia war and now the amped up Hamas-Israel confrontation. But I have wondered about something that wasn't mentioned in the open part of the article--the tension between climate activism and consumers. And the fact that climate activists are also consumers that need gas, electricity and other necessities of modern life. When the price of those go up, for whatever reason, the howls rise.

We are watching soccer this morning and then we'll shift to DVDs. I scanned the news this morning and didn't see much new. The aid trucks are finally moving into Gaza. Everything else repeats what we saw last night.

I haven't seen many real discussions of the Biden Administration's proposed "aid" package. The proposal, as it stands last time I saw/heard it, wants a whopping $100+billion. One of the interviewers asked outright if we could afford that given all of the needs we have at home. Biden came back vigorously insisting that "of course" we can--we are the most powerful nation that has ever been. Only a couple of other commentators mentioned that part of the interview. Almost no one really drilled into the notion that somehow we can, as the old saying goes, have unlimited guns and unlimited butter. We tried that in the 1960s when the Johnson Administration declared "war" on poverty and massively increased our involvement in Vietnam. One critic carped that Johnson "declared war on poverty but funded a skirmish." But the Vietnam quicksand sucked up increasing amounts of tax dollars and the deficits ramped up. We really couldn't fund both at the same time and paid with massive inflation in the 1970s. We already have a high level of inflation at the consumer level though the economists insist it isn't all that bad. Most of them, of course, don't do their own shopping and they would rather believe the massaged statistics developed to make the politicians feel good. If it comes to a choice between guns and butter, butter is going to lose. Bill Astore calls the package "trigger treats."

22**********************************************************************

We had heavy rain early last night and high winds. I don't know what things are like right now because it is still dark. The sky is becoming a bit lighter but dawn is still about half an hour away. We had another domestic almost catastrophe. Mom mentioned that the downstairs toilet was a bit slow so I checked for a sewer backup and found everything dry. About two hours later the landlord's handyman was checking the connection to the main sewer. He asked if we had seen any water in the utility closet. I hadn't but checked again and there was water on the floor. Thankfully, it hadn't gotten any further. They got the line cleared fairly quickly.

Contemplating the Hamas-Israeli conflict I remember a scene in the DUNE miniseries (released 2000). Jessica tells Paul that she has seen the future he is unleashing and is terrified. He claims he can't stop it. Jessica protests that the violence will hurt the "innocent." He tells her, implacably, that there are no innocents any more. There no innocents in any war and the current conflicts in our world prove that. The screams of the bereaved and the injured are THE SAME on both sides but neither side wants to give more than lip service to the innocence of the "civilians" on the other side. There are neither innocents nor civilians in any of the conflicts. I doubt that there ever have been in any conflict. We follow the Chivington dictum: kill and scalp them all...nits make lice. I'll let you look up the reference. JanInSanFran at Can It Happen Here? makes a similar argument.

Scientific American has an interesting article on the spread of a parasite caused skin disease normally associated with tropical areas--in the U.S. Over the last few years we have seen several tropical diseases spreading in the U.S. An especially interesting tidbit in the article: the parasite has been found in samples from 18 years ago. And an "American" strain of the parasite has appeared.

I am not sympathetic to the notion of blasphemy. It really should be applied within a particular religious tradition and non-lethal penalties should only be applied to members of that tradition. However, I saw an image this morning that, if I were a practicing Christian, I would find blasphemous. It showed The Former Guy in court with a spectral Jesus seated beside him. He is NOT Christ's deputy on earth. In his actions and words he is the antithesis of Christ.

We just went out on an unscheduled errand. The cabinet under the sink has finally dried out enough to lay down a liner of newspaper. We don't subscribe so we decided to pick one up and get the few items on our grocery list at the same time. We were surprised that the grocery store didn't have any red cabbage. The stocker told us they hadn't had any for a while and didn't know when more would come in. I thought I would substitute a green cabbage but they only had about a dozen and they were huge. Even a small one would do us for four or five meals. So we didn't get any cabbage. We wanted a bottle of red wine primarily for cooking but a nip every now and then would also be good. But we got there at 11am and the cashier said that she couldn't sell it before 12. I did look up the laws in Indiana and everything I saw set no time limits for Sunday sales. We didn't argue. There are enough bitches out there. But we didn't get the wine either. And we wanted a newspaper. My god!! Those rags were pathetic. Even the Chicago paper was a ghost of its former self. We barely got enough newsprint for a shelf liner. There was no news worthy of the name. Even the Sunday funnies were skimpy. We did get the newspaper but aren't happy it cost 2 bucks. I wonder if we should have got a roll of regular shelf liners which would have been too good for the use.