October 31

 Happy Halloween and welcome to the end of October. The current temperature is 22F according to The Weather Channel. They forecast a high in the mid 30s with chances of afternoon SNOW at 40% rising to 80% overnight. Possible accumulation of 1-3 inches and a low again in the 20s.

Well, the UAW and the big three automakers have reached tentative agreements that have yet to be voted on by union membership but the union leaders are recommending approval. The workers won't get the 40% increase they wanted but the 25% isn't chump change. I always thought the CEOs who got that 40& over the last 3 years exhibited both hubris and hypocrisy when they claimed corporate poverty when presented with union demands.

Stray thought: most of the commentators were somewhat bemused about the motivation behind the new Speaker's decision to link the aid package for Israel, without any for either Taiwan or Ukraine as proposed by the Biden administration), to a claw back of the money allotted to the IRS in the Inflation Reduction Act passed earlier this year. That money was intended to boost the number of IRS auditors who were supposed to target high earning shirkers. They call it a pay-for. What the commentators aren't recognizing is how such a move meshes with the aims of a significant portion of the Republican conference. If the IRS can't audit tax returns and we risk tax avoidance becoming another "national support."  Reduced compliance means reduced revenue which means the fiscal health of the U.S. they all are so-o-o-o-o concerned about becomes more questionable. Also it is entirely probable that any aid for either Israel and Ukraine will be delayed possibly for months as the measures bounces between the House, the Senate and the White House. Think about what I said yesterday about what would happen to our alliances if we fail to keep our word to our partners. But we also have a significant number of isolationists in the Republican caucus. The Former Guy took us out of the Paris Climate Accords and threatened to do the same for NATO. If we break our promises we won't have to leave the various alliance we are a part of. Our partners will kick us out. And it is still a global international world but we would be all alone in it. Take Britain's problems after Brexit and quadruple it.

I keep saying that the major problem with all the economists politicians rely on to tell us how good the economy is they don't do their own grocery shopping. That basically what Ian Walsh says here. The headline economic statistics the news media hype so regularly ignores some of the data that affects ordinary people most severely: food, fuel, or longterm unemployed people.