January 31

 Welcome to the end of January. The clouds should clear out later today and then usher in 40s and low 50s for the next ten days. No rain expected which is good because it will give us time to dry out. We have already shifted out of the news because there isn't really any news to listen to or speak (or write) of.

Aurelian has a long post which deserves a careful read. First, he pokes a very big whole in the "techno-enthusiast" notion that something new, expensive, and theoretically powerful is an actual game changer. He applies the argument to military technology but I would argue it applies to other systems as well. What is good in theory often turns out not so good in practice. Second, the reason the new tech is not as much of a game changer as the enthusiast expects is it is applied in real world conditions for which is isn't effective. Third, all technologies, military and other, need a network of supply and support in which it can function. Fourth, technology has to be applied to suitable strategic objectives which have to be clearly defined and are actually achievable. I don't think converting Afghanistan into a western style, democratic system was ever achievable. And we were up against an enemy who simply wanted us out of their country. Fifth, there is a cost to all technologies and the cost (in men, money, and materiel) may not be sustainable or the objective not worth the price. I could go on but I will leave that to you.

Bill Astore notes the resurrection (if it ever died completely) of the old "domino theory." Just change the Communist Boogyman to Authoritarian Boogyman and change the location from Asia to Europe and nothing changes. It seems to me that our foreign policy has us whipsawed between fear of overwhelmingly powerful autocrats who are salivating to conquer a weak, fragile West piece by piece and if they win anywhere we lose everywhere. At the same time we are feed the notion that we are powerful enough to project our power everywhere and bring every country under the umbrella of the "democratic" world order.