Sunny morning but cold enough to lay down a hard frost. We had to scrape the car windows when we went out today for a short shopping trip to the dairy and the drug store. I took the weekend off. We didn't watch much news because it is so repetitive it becomes annoying noise. Instead we watched Premier League soccer on Saturday and then switched to our own reruns, and the Six Nation rugby with ski jumping in between. So much more pleasant.
Charles Hugh Smith has an interesting comparison of the U.S. today and the Roman Empire in the decades before the Western Empire fell. I wondered where he was going when he was going when he brought up the "phantom legions." But he makes a good case. It is all about costs and effectiveness. Legion that were under strength, whose soldiers were not feed or equipped properly or trained well led by officers who were inexperienced or unmotivated can't perform effectively. And the empire was paying full freight for assets that just weren't there because the taxes were siphoned off by corrupt officials. Though one can quibble about whether the bureaucrats in health care (which Smith calls "sick care") are necessarily corrupt but the system is built to continue paying them (and increasing their salaries) whether the system (whether medicine, or education, or police forces) function properly or not. The bureaucrats have strong incentives to push for more money and hide any inadequacy. Interesting thought--I have read several stories about military units that are seriously undermanned. Where ever we are spending the more than $800billion we are taxed to provide it isn't going into the manpower.
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Cool and sunny today. I spent a couple of minutes looking at several of the plants but nothing is showing any signs of coming back. That might be a good thing. I remarked yesterday that I was glad none of the trees had started budding out because the overnight temps are back at or below freezing. I haven't made any of my seed orders yet but I will have to do so soon.
Aurelien posted this long article a couple of days ago. I have kept it in my inbox and gone back to it a couple of times. It echoes some of the ideas I have been reading in other places lately. As we stumble our way through this chaotic world I have wondered, worried in some cases, where we will end up. I am old enough that the actuarial realities mean I probably won't live long enough to see what that the near term will be. The long term is well beyond my likely termination date. I haven't found the fountain of youth or an immortality potion.
Stray thought #1: the divisions in, especially but not solely, the Republican Party over aid to Israel and Ukraine are remarkable. Once upon a time they would have been falling over themselves to get as much as possible for those "friends" but now, because Trump ordered them to kill the measures, they refuse to continue the funding. I have my own questions about how much aid and for whom and for what reasons. But I would have preferred to have a reasoned debate which we aren't getting.
Stray thought #2: I put the word friends in quotes because nations don't really have friends: they have allies who have their own goals which may or may not all run parallel with ours. For a good discussion of the results of this mistaken notion read Andrew Bacevich's After the Apocalypse. We really do need a more clear eyed assessment of our foreign policy.
Stray thought #3: so much of our foreign policy is a hold over from the Cold War. It has been over for thirty years but it still taints our actions and thoughts. Many of the countries of the Middle East (especially, but not solely) used the Cold War competition between the U.S. and the U.S.S.R. to extract resources in return for "friendship." We are still buying friendship.
The Armchair Warlord on X has an interesting post that should give us pause. Several stories over the last couple of years come to mind. Several NATO countries have had difficulties providing the military materiel they wanted to provide Ukraine. We have persuaded some of them by promising to "backstop" the weapons and ammunition they provided from our own stocks. Now we have to restock our own reserves. However, our legislature isn't considering any funding to do that. Warlord makes a good point that Rather than translating into a mountain of steel on the battlefield, Western riches have only made each shell cost a mountain of cash.
Stray thought #4: for about 20 years now, we have periodically read the stories about our industrial infrastructure and capabilities, and wondered how we might fare in a large war given how much of our industry has been moved off shore. Most of our military equipment is made largely if not entirely overseas. Think about how the Thai floods along the Mekong River messed up the U.S. automakers who couldn't get the parts to continue production. Think about how the pandemic messed up even more supply lines. Think about the shortages we have experienced in drugs and medical supplies.
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