Good Morning. Cloudy today with the temperature now (9:15am) at about 50F. Yesterday it got up to nearly 70. April is only a couple of days away. Damn--how fast the time is going by.
Ugo Bardi has an interesting examination of bell curve models on his Seneca Effect site. I was somewhat skeptical of the "flattening of the curve" message our experts put out but for a couple of other reasons. I wasn't all that convinced of the wisdom of prolonging the epidemic which is exactly what the flattening argument meant. As it turns out we didn't have one peak but several. I also wasn't all that convinced of the wisdom of trying to almost totally shut down an economy but we followed Italy in this strategy as did most other European countries. All models are based on assumptions and if the assumptions are wrong the model is useless. As the old saying goes "assume makes an ass our of u and me."
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